Strategy · Pattern recognition

Spot the signal

Strategy starts by noticing a meaningful change before it becomes obvious to everyone.

Inspired by The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking by Michael D. Watkins. This is an original explanation, not a reproduction of the text.

The idea

Pattern recognition connects scattered observations into a useful possibility: customer complaints are clustering, a rival is hiring a new kind of specialist, or a formerly minor cost is rising every quarter. The strategic move is not merely to notice facts but to ask what larger change could explain them.

The danger is seeing a pattern because you want one. Treat the first explanation as a hypothesis. Search for another explanation, evidence that would disprove yours, and a comparable situation where the pattern did not hold.

Make it concrete

Three enterprise customers request export controls in one month. That could signal a new market need—or one consultant advising all three. Before changing the roadmap, the team checks customer relationships, sales notes, competitor releases, and support history. A signal becomes strategic only after disciplined testing.

Keep this: Notice repetitions early, then try to break your own explanation before betting on it.

Try it

List three weak signals you have noticed recently. Write two different explanations for each. What new observation would distinguish between them?